How Trump’s re-election is shaping international study trends

The result of this week’s US election is undoubtedly significant and international education will see some of the most immediate impact. However, that impact will be complex as students from around the world ask what a second Trump presidency means for their study plans, and students from within the USA will become more likely to consider studying abroad.  

Our unique combination of Keystone Pulse survey and Share of Search data can already reveal some of this impact.

Key Findings from the Keystone Pulse Survey

Recent survey results from over 600 respondents in October reveal a significant shift in how international students perceive the USA as a study destination. A noteworthy 42% of prospective students indicated that they are less likely to consider studying in the USA following Trump’s re-election. This indicates a rising sense of hesitation among the global student audience. Perhaps more significantly, 41% remain uncertain. Audiences are still making up their minds about the impact of this news, which means universities still have an opportunity to support and reassure them.

The implications of this sentiment are particularly pronounced among prospective graduate audiences. 5% of prospective students explicitly stated that they are now less inclined to pursue their studies in the USA.

This statistic underscores a critical trend: the postgraduate demographic appears to be especially alert and sensitive to the political environment, which could impact their decisions about education opportunities.

Variance in Student Search Behavior Post-Election

Our Pulse survey shows how students feel, but Share of Search trends across Keystone platforms immediately reveal how interest in studying in the USA has shifted following the election. By analyzing search data from October 30 (a week before the election) and November 6 (the day after the election), we observe an overall decline of 3% in interest toward American institutions.

Regional Insights:

• East Asia: -3%
• South Asia: +9%
• UK: -1%
• Europe (excluding the UK): -3%
• North America: -17%
• South America: +1%
• Africa: -1%

Particularly noteworthy is North America’s drastic 17% decline—a trend that reflects international perceptions and indicates a significant pivot among American students themselves, who may now be reconsidering their higher education options both domestically and abroad. This substantial decline raises questions about how domestic sentiments are entwined with global perceptions and could signal broader shifts in student mobility.

Shifting Interests Towards Alternative Study Destinations

The uncertainty surrounding the USA's viability as a study destination has increasingly encouraged prospective students to explore alternative options. The countries that have emerged as beneficiaries of this shifting interest include:

• Sweden: +37%
• Finland: +36%
• Singapore: +30%
• New Zealand: +29%
• Czechia: +28%
• Italy: +25%
• UK: +19%
• Spain: +19%

These figures paint a picture of students actively seeking study opportunities in nations that are perceived to offer more stable and welcoming educational experiences. This trend suggests that as global uncertainties rise, many prospective students may be inclined to relocate to countries that provide a more favorable political landscape for their academic pursuits.

Adaptation in Higher Education Marketing

In an environment thick with uncertainty, universities must be agile in adapting their marketing strategies to align with potential students' evolving attitudes. Engaging narratives that articulate academic opportunities in a warm, inclusive manner—emphasizing a welcoming and supportive educational environment—will be crucial in restoring prospective students' confidence.

Furthermore, institutions should stay vigilant by actively monitoring new trends and adjusting their outreach strategies accordingly. This could include enhancing international recruitment initiatives or crafting targeted campaigns for specific demographics still interested in studying in the USA.

As we progress, it's essential to appreciate the power of data to inform our strategic choices. Understanding the subtleties in global student sentiment allows universities to tailor their approaches effectively and attract diverse international audiences, paving the way for a successful recruitment strategy in a changing global landscape.

For further insights into student behaviors and tailored strategies that can help bolster your recruitment efforts, let’s explore how we can collaborate to enhance your university’s appeal and visibility in this evolving context.

About the Author

Dr. Mark Bennett is the Director of Audience and Insight at FindAUniversity, a Keystone Company. Leveraging Keystone's unique data and insights, Mark regularly presents on global higher education trends, recruitment, and policy topics, having previously spoken at events organized by CASE Universities Marketing Forum (UMF), HELOA, NAGAP, ContentEd, the UK Council for Graduate Education (UKCGE), Westminster Forum and others. Mark taught at multiple UK universities prior to joining FindAUniversity and holds a PhD in gothic literature from the University of Sheffield; he still struggles to convince his kids that ghosts aren’t real.